Credit Analysis: Day 3

Phoenix, AZ 

Today was the last day of our Credit Analysis course, and we mostly focused on case studies and determining whether projects were viable for incentivizing. I also had the opportunity to put the local project of the Grim Hotel on a spread sheet to determine whether or not, by this course's standards, the Grim project was sound or not. My conclusion? 

In the Grim project, the city's investment is lower than in most projects of this nature for redevelopment across the country. After discussing the project with CDFA experts, City officials felt comfortable with the city's level of involvement in the project as it compares to similar projects of this nature. While the specific Grim developer has been working with the City for many years, and is only now nearing a workable deal, the City has been very cautious over the years about the sources of funding and how much time, resources, and financing the City is willing to front.  In any deal, this is prudent, but especially in one that has been so heavily public-driven. 

This project is more community development, rather than economic development in nature, so applying the spread sheet credit analysis model that I've learned this week is not a completely accurate, but I still wanted to use a project that I am personally involved with to apply the concepts I've learned this week. This project from the surface seems like it would not be sound, because it is not creating a lot of jobs, or introducing new money into the market. Ultimately, however, due to the location of the Grim Hotel property in the heart of our downtown, and it being the unmistakable black hole that could be the turning point for synergy there, regardless of how the numbers look on paper, it's a project the city has to do. 

So, back to yesterday's conclusion. The Grim deal, and any other economic development project the City touches, has built-in risk, but at the end of the day, the City's job is to make sure that the financing sources are sound, and that the taxpayer's are ensured benefit from any investment. In this case, redeveloping a derelict property as large as the Grim Hotel, creating some buzz in this downtown space, and any progress on a building that has been vacant for more than 20 years should be enough to offset any "skin in the game" by the City. 

That's it from Phoenix. Next up, Marketing and Attraction in Baltimore. 

Credit Analysis: Day 2

Phoenix, AZ

Day 2 was more calculations and learning to put a project on a spreadsheet and decide if it was a valid project and worth the time it would take to close the deal.

What did I learn? Economic development, at least at the City level, will always possess an inherent level of risk. The deals that come our way will be the deals that don't qualify for traditional bank loans or who don't have the personal capital to invest in a business. So, although it's important to understand the investments on the table and it's good to know the terms of an offer, a lot of the opportunities that come to the City will always be risky.

This course has been very informative, and so far, I've learned a ton about the financial side of economic development.

Credit Analysis: Day 1

Phoenix, AZ

When I was little, first grade to be exact, I remember being the first in my class to fill out the multiplication table worksheet and winning a prize. I didn't have to work out the problems, because I figured out the pattern and sequence of the numbers. I remember instinctively being so competitive to beat everyone else, and physically being stressed to make it happen: sweaty palms, heart racing, and stomach in knots because I had to be first. Silly, I know.

As I grew up, that feeling faded. I wanted to fit in, and the goal was to not be recognized. I noticed pretty early on that female students were expected to be good at reading and English, while the male students were supposed to flourish in math and science. So, I played the part. I've always been into words.

Fast forward 24 years later, I sat in a hotel conference room today and the familiar feeling crept back in as I was calculating a spreadsheet by hand for a company's balance sheet and profit and loss statement. I had to be first. I had to be right. And it felt so good to win. I had forgotten how much I actually enjoy crunching numbers.

Now, don't get me wrong, when it was time to calculate the company's Operating Cycle and Ratio Analysis, my head started to hurt a little. But at the end of the day, I had a blast learning about credit analysis.

We spent most of the morning discussing the role of an economic development finance professional, various economic development approaches to financing, and ways to reduce costs to make deals happen. The trainer, Sheldon Bartel, is nothing short of a credit analysis genius. He moves fast, and expects us to keep up. I learned more today than I have in the seven years since graduate school.

I am fortunate working for the City in that I have a team of extremely talented finance professionals no more than a staircase away willing to help me assess any opportunity that presents itself. None the less, I want and need to learn the basics of economic development financing so that I can help provide businesses with access to low cost long-term capital, incentives, and the infrastructure and amenities necessary to succeed.

Mid-morning we discussed several approaches to reducing development costs, reducing costs of capital, making capital more readily available, decreasing operating costs, and attracting outside equity. I've picked up most of this over the few years that I have worked with the SBDC in Atlanta, and with Jerry on projects in Texarkana. Fortunately, I've had firsthand experience with all the creative finance tools available through the Grim Project, so it was easy to use a real world example in today's discussion. The Grim is quite the anomaly, with so much public support and such a huge impact on our community, so it isn't the perfect project to run through economic development credit analysis. Still, it's better to work with a real project than an imaginary one any day.

Bartel went on to highlight how to calculate Return on Investment (ROI) and Return on Equity (ROE) and the need for equity capital. After a case study, he explained why it was so important to help small-medium sized businesses access the kind of financing they need. For instance, according to the Small Business Administration, small-medium sized businesses created 40% of new jobs in the U.S. in the last two decades. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 48% of all U.S. workers are employed by a small-medium sized business. Over a third (36%) of high tech workers, who make over $80K a year, are employed by a small-medium business. All that to say that small-medium businesses can create new jobs at one-tenth of the cost of new jobs created by a Fortune 500 Company.

It is absolutely pertinent to our economy to help small-medium sized businesses stay in business and stay profitable. Whether it be an issue of cash flow, expansion, or acquisition, it is often necessary for the economic development engine to become involved in order to ensure success. My job will be to make sure the deal is feasible. Unlike a banker, I don't need to pursue profitability from lending, but need to ensure taxpayer's money is spent wisely, can be paid back, and hopefully will create more or better jobs in our community.

The rest of the day was spent discussing business development challenges (and solutions), and then moved in to the calculation of various components of a deal, such as debt service. We discussed the four C's of credit: cash flow, collateral, character, and capacity. We also talked about what economic development financing is, compared to what it is not. I'm going to list the specifics here, for posterity.

What EDF is:

-provides a business with growth capital necessary to reach its full potential by providing attractively priced financing that fills a financing gap. 

-leverages private sector dollars in order to expand the amount of capital available to a small business.

What EDF is NOT:

-Duplicating existing private sector resources (we're not competing with the banks)

-Inducement packages to attract large plants

-Bailouts of failing businesses

-Grants

-High-risk capital for start-up companies

I'm sure all you readers already knew all that, but it doesn't hurt to remind the general public how these $$ that are set aside for economic development are intended to be used.

Then we dived straight into the credit analysis process and spent the rest of the afternoon crunching numbers. We worked out balance sheets and profit and loss statements by hand. Seriously, we did it the old school way, with pencil and paper and a calculator, and determined in several case studies if cash flow was greater than debt service. I've attached a few photos to prove that I did it, with my own hand. No computers were involved in the making of these spread sheets:

There you have it-- A full day of credit analysis is in the books. I might have geeked out a little, but I kept my head above water and even made some friends with some kind folks from Waco. I'll keep you updated, as I'm sure exciting things are head in Day 2 of Credit Analysis from Phoenix, Arizona.

Business Retention and Expansion: Day 2

Jan 27th, 2017- Jacksonville, FL

While everyone else is undoubtedly watching Tom Brady make history with the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, I'm going over BRE notes from Jacksonville and preparing for my next training this week.

So, back to Florida....

Day 2 was all about the elements that make up a good BRE plan. We also discussed how to properly market and brand a BRE plan, and use social media to reinforce the strategies employed. Here are a few things I took away from it:

-Customer Outreach: The days of scheduling times to meet with CEOs, picking up the phone to cold call them, and taking up an entire afternoon on the golf course or an entire lunch hour at a swanky restaurant  answering mundane questions about how the operate are over. Those days died with the recession. Now, CEOs are moving faster than ever before, and an economic development office that is successful will have to keep up. That's why it's necessary to meet the business leaders where they're at, whether that be at a community service event, or in the grocery store, or at a Chamber event. Building relationships, understanding their bottom line, and development plan will be key to effectively knowing how we can assist them in keeping their doors open.

This is an area that I'll have to work on. Jerry has years and years of relationships built with business owners in our area, and I will need to make those connections at lightening speed in order to be effective. There is some validity to the idea that even those long time business owners are also getting ready to retire, and there will be an opportunity for new faces to lead these businesses in the future. I'm hoping that as we transition at the City, those businesses transitioning as well will allow for an intersect and relationships can be forged in the meantime.

-Data Retention: Although it is important to keep good data, and pay attention to trends and oddities, it is also more likely that data retained is never analyzed. The most important part to collecting data and understanding what challenges our Texarkana businesses might be facing is to actually work to use the data that is collected. Instead of collecting survey responses, recording interviews, or pulling reports, it is important to draw some conclusions from all the information, and then actually use it to make data-based decisions about spending and programming that can best benefit our existing businesses.

Since graduate school, thanks to Dr. Al Bavon, I have been thinking about how to help organizations make better data-driven decisions. Fortunately, the administration at the City of Texarkana, Texas has been doing a great job at this for the past three years I've worked there. I hope we can continue this trend and use even stronger sets of data to better understand all aspects of a decision and use our budget (tax dollars) to the fullest potential.

The trainers presented ideas about "welcome wagons" and "business walks" which were interesting takes on BRE work. Welcome Wagons are groups of people that make initial contact with a businesses when it first opens and then remains the contact for that business to the city/economic development organization throughout the businesses tenure in that location. While I'm sure we could use this concept to some extent in Texarkana, we do not have a ton of new businesses relocating to our city every year. The idea of helping facilitate various inspections, zoning requests, or other interaction with the city to ensure the processes are smooth is valid and useful.

We discussed a Business Walk program first employed by Sacramento, CA and perfected by the British Columbia, Canada Chamber of Commerce that involves volunteers gathering and walking to businesses within close proximity taking notes about the exterior of the building, traffic counts, and other noticeable traits. Resisting these businesses once a quarter, or year, provide data about changes over time. If the CEO is present when the group visits, making contact with them, just letting them know what is happening and how the data can be used is also useful. Of course, letting business owners know that the group is coming prior to the visit is also important. This technique could be valuable in Texarkana, in certain geographic locations where many businesses are located close in proximity, such as Falvey Industrial Park.

The rest of the training time was spent discussing job fairs, job training programs, working with local schools K-12 and higher education to meet the needs of existing industry, and marketing tools. Fortunately, these are areas in which I feel confident.

Next week, I'm off to Phoenix for a class in Credit Analysis. Should be fun!